This room feels like Q4 2016 all over again
This isn't a pump piece but more of an observations piece.
Does anyone feel like this is Q4 2016 all over again? I'm talking about price and sentiment here in this sub specifically when we had less than 5000 members. I'm probably not going to get a lot of old timers to chime in here but our numbers have gone 10x+ in terms of members and everything is magnified.
The main difference this time pricewise is we're fighting for $1000 instead of $10. Just reading everything on Reddit yesterday with /u/laughncow crash graph comments reminds me of the troll winter here in EthTrader back in Q4 2016….lots of long timers were starting bailing out because they'd never seen a crash before that big. MANY MANY people bought at the high range $18-$22 (yes including me) and were capitulating under $12 hoping to get back in around $3 "because they'd seen it in Bitcoin before". And then the reversal took place at $5.85….so my mind thinks the market wants to see yet a 3rd dip to $585 to complete the painting of the tape. I will not dare sell here. So be it if it does.
"um..guys are we gonna be like 2014 400 day long bear again?"…"guys are we?"
When I here this fear I get the feeling that someone over invested. Don't over-invest. I made that mistake in that particular year. You can use risky money if you are younger but PLEASE don't use emergency money. One unforeseen medical bill forced my hand to sell at a loss that year. PLEASE don't use emergency money like I did.
Now fundamentals have improved dramatically in terms of conference attendance, community participation, EEA, truffle use, DAPPS going through final audits/testing, OMG plasma in May along with a whole new wave media/gov/companies everywhere piling in the space and concern trolls are really truly worried we may revisit $100 again. REALLY? "I'll be back in when we complete the retrace to $100-$200….omg I hate to see $300 break but it may" blah blah blah.
I know I'm a man of many rose colored glasses. There are ALWAYS going to politics and regulation fears in crypto. Just get it in your head that crypto is here to stay. The US at least is wanting your tax dollars any way they can and crypto is no longer something that has a fear of being wiped (which it can't anyway but that's a different philosophy thread) but rather being considering a BOOMING new asset class. An asset class that has proven to be a very low barrier to entry asset class with much to prove in terms of utility and trustless settlements.
You can buy now, buy later, sell now, sell later. 4 choices. I personally think the band-aid is off and the next move up may leave you the way the reversal left so many traders at the station Q1 2017 particularly in April 2017. Traders back then who had sold at $10 never reentered because the price hit $50 and was still "overvalued". Now here we are just just under the new $7 in my book.
I'm beginning to think market makers are holding a lower ceiling here and the higher lows are coming. I can feel it. Bitcoin needs to shit the bed one more time and let the strong hands go deep in around $7500, ETH ratio holds/goes higher here, we touch $550-$625 or so and then the train leaves the good gosh golly darn station again. No problem doing some DCA here. Just some thoughts.
Project to January 2020 for a bit. What do you see?