Augur’s “Will Augur be hacked?” market impact

Augur is launching with a predicton market called "Will Augur be hacked?". those who own rep will likely bet on the "no" side, and more likely than not, they'll receive a portion of the rep from those who bet on the "yes" side when the market expires.

An obvious question then is why anyone would be on the "yes it will be hacked" side, and not just because of the extensive audits augur has undergone. It makes no financial or technical sense for a hacker or investor to bet on the "yes" side. Joey, the augur founder, has made it clear that they (the Augur team) will be betting a significant portion of their Rep on the "yes" side.

What this really means is that if you bet "no", before the market's expiration date, you'll have gained a ton of free rep from the rep team, assuming Augur will not be hacked. Based on the audits and everything we've been sittng through, You'd be crazy to be a rep holder and not bet on the "no" side.

Interestingly, this free dividend (of the Augur team betting on the "yes" side) will lead to some peculiar market impacts. The overrall circulating supply is likely to drop dramatically, as any real holder of augur is going to have their rep locked in the prediction market to earn some of the aforementioned dividend. A small circulating supply is a potent ingredient for market volatility. In this case, it is likely there will be a lot more buy pressure due to the return of free Augur. And I mean, a lot.

What I am saying is, people on this sub have been bitching about augur opening only with a single contract.

In the crypto world, the best marketing strategy is a huge price increase. To create this price increase, you need to generate buy pressure in the midst of a limited circulating supply. I would say that, the incentive of free Rep on July 8th (assuming there are no delays) is probably going to both be an excellent marketer for Rep as well as a formula for a dramatic price increase.

Stay tuned

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