Ethereum is now 25% its reasonable speculative value.

Even though I've been big on the concept of coordinated market manipulation recently, it still doesn't mean I think some of the assets in this space are undervalued.

Case in point: Ethereum.

Tldr: Assume an adoption rate of 5% with a 26% discount rate (not at all unreasonable since the the low adoption rate effectively factors in competition) then the projected 2030 intrinsic value is $1827.

Even at 1% under this model (please read the analysis) that intrinsic value is $1039.

Considering you can buy multiple stocks right now with P/Es on much higher multiples than this (this is the norm rather than exception), over simillar timeframes I think its safe to say that ETH for its current adoption and ecosystem is undervalued relative to Bitcoin and indeed most other cryptocurrencies.

Now what I'm really interested to see is people's responses to the model so actually read the link.

Even though I acknowledge that highly coordinated market makers have played a role in the price activity of almost all cryptocurrencies to date; that doesn't deny the ecosystems these tokens have developed.

It is more important to look to the present and project the future; whilst I feel that at least 1 more black swan event is inevitable (USDT likely getting taken down due to its links with Bitfinex and insider trading) that doesn't mean that using current metrics that these tokens are necessarily overvalued; ultimately the motive and long term beliefs of market makers is as important as their activity when factoring such things in.

Finally I am going to tell you that this market is actually a blessing to those who are still in the green and sufficiently diversified from the last bull mainly because opportunities are now starting to appear for mass accumulation in lower cap, well developed tokens with actual higher probability bright futures.

Addendum: I'd like to thank u/arsonbunny for this. Take comfort and be grateful for his work here. Finally if you want to know what tokens I'm talking about why not check out my post history.