Thought on sentiment

A lot of people pushing narratives today. “Tether is fucked.” “The stock market is fucked.” “BTC is fucked.” Apparently lots of reasons you should sell and drive the price lower appear right as meme triangle is coming to an end.

But no one can say why those things should affect ETH negatively except as vague speculation. “Tether is a percentage of ETH volume so that will make it go down.” “People will pull out of risky assets when the stocks crash.” “ETH always goes down more than BTC.”

The only thing that really matters though is sentiment. Do people feel confident in buying now or will they hold off because it might go lower for “insert reason here”? And that sentiment is what’s being affected by these narratives.

You could as easily say “When people search for safe haven from Tether, ETH will be there for them to buy.” “People will flock to an asset at its low when escaping the stock market at its high.” Or “ETH only drops harder than BTC because people sell with that assumption in mind, creating a self fulfilling prophecy.”

As far as ETH fundamentals go, nothing has changed for the worse over the last month. Devcon and Constantinople are both coming within the next 4 weeks. Progress is still being made. All the fall out from POW delay should have been priced in over the last 6 months.

It’s my opinion that this particular FUD cycle will be short lived. I would advise shorters to keep reasonable stops and not get too greedy, because it’s pigs who always get slaughtered.

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