What is your personal Moon target?
User u/Ordinary_investor just asked me "What is your personal Moon target? ".
I happen to have spent some time thinking about this recently, so here's a post about my reasoning.
First thing I realized is that it's quite important to think about this stuff now, while I'm still lucid and not blinded by monstrous profits and greed.
Secondly, I see it more as a "profit taking strategy" instead one single figure at which I'd sell everything.
Thirdly, I believe that sky's the limit and we most likely haven't seen the real crypto bubble yet. Yep.
Finally, my aim is to improve my quality of life, not to play casino.
Here's the real problem:
Let's assume Eth starts mooning and my ether balance becomes equal the rest of my entire net worth (cash + material + other investments). At this point, let's say I foresee a 80% probability of ether still significantly increasing in value. Should I keep the investment running?
How about it becomes 3 times my entire net worth, with an estimated 60% probability? Does it make sense to keep it entirely? Becomes harder to answer.
The real question is "how do I secure a future without neither regrets nor missed opportunities"
As you've guessed, finding the right balance between "total net worth outside of crypto" and "crypto" is the key.
Even though it doesn't maximize profits in the case of a full moon, I think the best way to do this is to start selling progressively when "crypto" goes above "total net worth outside of crypto", so that the two remain equivalent.
If I don't do that, I'll have severe, probably life long regrets if the price falls for some reason.
I just calculated, that would put the price at around $800 for me.
I think it's still crazy low, and will be really hard to start selling at that price, but doing something like this allows to have all cases covered:
If the price falls, I'd have manageable regrets.
If the price stagnates, the investment is still here and I can take profits whenever life forces me to.
If the price keeps on increasing, it means more net worth, more money for fun, more $ in crypto.